Friday, 11 November 2016

Another look at the polls

The dust hasn't quite settled after the 2016 US presidential elections. The campaigns were rough and now everyone's asking why the polls got it so wrong. How did they all miss Trump's victory?

I'm in the group that don't really like politics but I love looking at the stats and predictions. I might become ABC's Anthony Green when I grow up. On election morning I didn't do much at work after stumbling on to this great  US Polls Data Set on Kaggle which is a collection of polls run from 2015.

Its a rich source of information with over 10k polls run by 188 pollsters. A simple aggregation of the polls by means of adjusted poll results provided a fairly accurate prediction for the election results
by smoothing variations and biases between individual polls.
After running this prediction, I spent most of the time matching the results and they were so accurate that I wasn't surprised Trump won Florida. Concerning what kind of president he'll turn out to be we'll watch and wait.

And if you speak R here's the R Script on Kaggle used for the above prediction map just to kill any doubt or if you want to star in the next elections.

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